China Record Low Birth Rates, Deepen Demographic Decline

By: Aremu Toyeebaht

China’s population fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, underlining Beijing’s struggle to reverse a long-term demographic decline.

Official figures released on Monday show the population dropped by 3.39 million, bringing the total to around 1.4 billion. Births fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people — the lowest since 1949 — while the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000, the highest since 1968.

The government has rolled out multiple measures to boost childbearing as it contends with an ageing population and slowing economic growth. Since ending the one-child policy in 2016, Beijing raised the limit to three children per couple in 2021 and has offered cash incentives, including 3,600 yuan for each child under three.

Despite these incentives, China’s fertility rate remains around one birth per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1. Controversial measures, including a new 13% tax on contraceptives, have also raised concerns about public health and unintended pregnancies.

Social pressures and rising costs are cited as major deterrents for young people. A Beijing resident told the BBC in 2021, “I have very few peers who have children, and if they do, they’re obsessed with the best schools and nannies. It sounds exhausting.”

United Nations experts warn the downward trend is likely to continue, projecting that China could lose more than half of its current population by 2100 if current patterns persist.